N. Korea likely to stage provocations next year to intervene in S. Korean, US elections: think tank
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, fourth from right, guiding the country's nuclear weaponization project the previous day, while calling for expanding the production of weapons-grade nuclear materials is shown in this file photo captured from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, March 28.
North Korea is likely to carry out provocative acts next year in an attempt to intervene in major elections in South Korea and the United States, a state-run think tank said Wednesday.
The Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) said North Korea could intensify psychological warfare or online and offline terrorist attacks against South Korea ahead of the South's parliamentary elections in April. The U.S. is scheduled to hold the presidential election in November.
"There is a need to prepare for the North Korean version of a hybrid war," Kim Jin-ha, a senior research fellow at the KINU, told reporters.
He said North Korea could stage major military provocations in a bid to press Washington to change its course on the U.S. policy on Pyongyang, while hoping former U.S. President Donald Trump wins the election.
Ahead of South Korea's elections, North Korea could continue to restore its military measures halted under a 2018 inter-Korean military accord, rather than staging provocations involving conventional weapons, according to Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the KINU.
North Korea has vowed to resume all military measures halted under the military tension reduction deal, after Seoul partially suspended it over Pyongyang's launch of a military spy satellite in November.
"The North is expected to additionally launch military spy satellites next year and seek to put sea-based tactical nuclear missiles into operation," Hong said.
North Korea has vowed to further launch spy satellites in a short span of time, after it successfully put the Malligyong-1 satellite into orbit in November following two previous failed attempts earlier this year.
Russia could provide North Korea with technology advice, components and space for satellite tests in a bid to help Pyongyang launch its second spy satellite next year, Hong added.
Hyun Seung-soo, a research fellow, said North Korea could press ahead with its seventh nuclear test next year, forecasting that Russia could conduct its first nuclear testing in about 30 years in 2024 to flex its muscle after President Vladimir Putin wins the presidential election in March. (Yonhap)
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